Weather forecast for Perth effective as of 12:00 AM Sunday December 17:
Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast.
Figure 1.Surface synoptic chart at 12 UTC(8 PM local time yesterday).Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).
Figure 2.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).
Figure 3.Key features identified on True Colour RGB satellite image at around 07:00 UTC(3 PM local time yesterday).Satellite image courtesy of the Japanese Meteorological Agency(JMA).
Figure 4:Surface synoptic prognosis.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).
A bomb deep cut off low lies near the region on Sunday and Monday resulting in showers,also thunderstorms on Sunday night and during the early hours on Monday and even possible small hail with deep cold air mass over the region associated with the deep low with 500 hPa temps likely dipping below -22 Degrees Celsius as predicted by ECMWF 00Z.
The strong pressure gradient will result in strong gusty winds,with gusts in excess of 70-80 km/h possible on both Sunday and Monday.
Strong west/southwesterly wind events of this magnitude are rare at this time of the year being more common between May to September.
A low pressure system of this magnitude based on minimum mean sea level pressure(MSLP) at Albany is rare even for winter and will be the strongest of the year so far and the strongest since October 2016!
The pressure difference between Albany and Geraldton could reach 17 hPa!
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.
The BOM says that this weather pattern is unusual for this time of the year and is more representative of winter weather.
High pressure ridge builds over the region thereafter resulting in improving weather conditions with rapidly warming conditions as a west coast trough forms near the west coast.
How high the maximum temperature from next Thursday is still highly uncertain at the moment with dependence on the precise position of the west coast trough with bias corrected ECMWF 00Z ensembles having maximum temperatures ranging anywhere from 28 Degrees Celsius to 39 Degrees Celsius for Thursday and from 24 Degrees Celsius to 40 Degrees Celsius!
The precis(summary) forecasts and "chance of any rain forecasts" are for Perth City while the detailed description underneath the precis forecasts is for the forecast area of Perth but the chance of rain forecasts in the detailed description underneath the precis forecasts is the average for the forecast area
The forecast:
The rest of Sunday December 17:
City:
15-21 Degrees Celsius
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy.A medium(50%) chance of showers increasing to a very high(100%) chance of showers and thunderstorms at night.Possible small hail from evening.Winds westerly at 20-35 km/h increasing to westerly at 30-50 km/h from morning.Wind gusts in excess of 70-80 km/h possible from afternoon.
Note:The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.
Monday December 18:
City:
13-22 Degrees Celsius
Partly cloudy.A very high(100%) chance of showers easing to a medium(50%) chance from late morning.The chance of thunderstorms and/or small hail in the early hours and early morning.Winds southwesterly at 35-50 km/h easing to south-southwesterly at 20-30 km/h at night.Wind gusts in excess of 70-80 km/h possible until evening.
Note:The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.
Tuesday December 19:
City:
15-24 Degrees Celsius
Wednesday December 20:
City:
14-29 Degrees Celsius
Thursday December 21:
City:
17-34 Degrees Celsius
Friday December 22:
City:
18-32 Degrees Celsius
Saturday December 23:
City:
16-31 Degrees Celsius
Explanatory notes:
Scroll down below this section for forecast.
Figure 2.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.Image courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM).
A bomb deep cut off low lies near the region on Sunday and Monday resulting in showers,also thunderstorms on Sunday night and during the early hours on Monday and even possible small hail with deep cold air mass over the region associated with the deep low with 500 hPa temps likely dipping below -22 Degrees Celsius as predicted by ECMWF 00Z.
The strong pressure gradient will result in strong gusty winds,with gusts in excess of 70-80 km/h possible on both Sunday and Monday.
Strong west/southwesterly wind events of this magnitude are rare at this time of the year being more common between May to September.
A low pressure system of this magnitude based on minimum mean sea level pressure(MSLP) at Albany is rare even for winter and will be the strongest of the year so far and the strongest since October 2016!
The pressure difference between Albany and Geraldton could reach 17 hPa!
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.
The BOM says that this weather pattern is unusual for this time of the year and is more representative of winter weather.
High pressure ridge builds over the region thereafter resulting in improving weather conditions with rapidly warming conditions as a west coast trough forms near the west coast.
How high the maximum temperature from next Thursday is still highly uncertain at the moment with dependence on the precise position of the west coast trough with bias corrected ECMWF 00Z ensembles having maximum temperatures ranging anywhere from 28 Degrees Celsius to 39 Degrees Celsius for Thursday and from 24 Degrees Celsius to 40 Degrees Celsius!
unless otherwise stated.
Time of day:
Cooler months(May 1-September 30):
Early hours:12AM-7AM
Morning:before 12PM
Middle of the day:11AM to 1PM
Afternoon:1PM to 5PM
Evening:5PM to 7PM
Night:After 6:30 PM.
About forecasts.
Time of day:
Cooler months(May 1-September 30):
Early hours:12AM-7AM
Morning:before 12PM
Middle of the day:11AM to 1PM
Afternoon:1PM to 5PM
Evening:5PM to 7PM
Night:After 6:30 PM.
About forecasts.
The forecast:
The rest of Sunday December 17:
City:
15-21 Degrees Celsius
Windy with showers,showers increasing from evening.Thunderstorms likely at night.
Severe weather warning in effect!See note!
Rainfall amount:5 to 15 mm.
Severe weather warning in effect!See note!
Chance of any rain:100%
Partly cloudy.A medium(50%) chance of showers increasing to a very high(100%) chance of showers and thunderstorms at night.Possible small hail from evening.Winds westerly at 20-35 km/h increasing to westerly at 30-50 km/h from morning.Wind gusts in excess of 70-80 km/h possible from afternoon.
Note:The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.
Monday December 18:
City:
Windy with showers,easing later.Possible early thunderstorms.
Severe weather warning in effect!See note!
Rainfall amount:4 to 10 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Severe weather warning in effect!See note!
Chance of any rain:100%
Perth metropolitan area:
Note:The Australian Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and damaging surf for parts of the southwest of the state including the Perth Metropolitan Area for Sunday and Monday.Please see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW21037.shtml for the latest severe weather warning.
Tuesday December 19:
City:
Clouds clearing.
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Chance of any rain:20%
Perth metropolitan area:
Partly cloudy becoming sunny by late afternoon.A slight(30%) chance of showers over coastal areas in the early hours,a slight(20%) chance elsewhere.Winds south to south-southeasterly at 10-20 km/h becoming southwesterly at 20-30 km/h from afternoon becoming south to southeasterly at 10-20 km/h at night.
Wednesday December 20:
City:
Sunny.
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Chance of any rain:0%
Perth metropolitan area:
Sunny.Winds easterly at 15-25 km/h tending south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening becoming southerly at 10-20 km/h at night.
Thursday December 21:
City:
Some high clouds possible(mostly sunny).
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Chance of any rain:0%
Perth metropolitan area:
Some high clouds possible(mostly sunny).Winds easterly at 15-25 km/h becoming south-southwesterly at 15-25 km/h in the afternoon and evening becoming south to southeasterly at 10-20 km/h at night.
Friday December 22:
City:
Some high clouds(mostly sunny).
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Chance of any rain:0%
Perth metropolitan area:
Some high clouds(mostly sunny).Light winds becoming southwesterly at 20-35 km/h in the afternoon and evening becoming south to southeasterly at 10-20 km/h at night.
Saturday December 23:
City:
Some high clouds(mostly sunny)
Rainfall amount:0 mm.
Perth metropolitan area:
Chance of any rain:0%
Perth metropolitan area:
Some high clouds(mostly sunny).Winds southeasterly at 15-25 km/h tending southwesterly at 20-30 km/h in the afternoon and evening.
Weather forecast for today produced at 11:45 PM Saturday December 16,forecast for the rest of the days produced at 4:20 PM Saturday December 16.Some of the weather icons courtesy of the US National Weather Service.
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